Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 0.020855 0.023654 0.026697 0.030251 0.034290 0.038739 0.044016
2025-05-25 0.016005 0.019741 0.024158 0.029772 0.036724 0.045067 0.055857
2025-06-01 0.013713 0.017905 0.023153 0.030216 0.039496 0.051302 0.067513
2025-06-08 0.011856 0.016215 0.021931 0.029997 0.041117 0.055961 0.077374
2025-06-15 0.010811 0.015394 0.021653 0.030853 0.044084 0.062507 0.090253
2025-06-22 0.009395 0.013860 0.020182 0.029816 0.044199 0.064985 0.097515
2025-06-29 0.008412 0.012820 0.019265 0.029421 0.045109 0.068571 0.106607
2025-07-06 0.007430 0.011665 0.018046 0.028411 0.044932 0.070434 0.113141
2025-07-13 0.007068 0.011416 0.018157 0.029431 0.047952 0.077417 0.128330
2025-07-20 0.006684 0.011087 0.018100 0.030154 0.050526 0.083872 0.143219
2025-07-27 0.006382 0.010857 0.018169 0.031070 0.053472 0.091152 0.160130
2025-08-03 0.005904 0.010284 0.017615 0.030870 0.054477 0.095213 0.171792
2025-08-10 0.005500 0.009813 0.017206 0.030907 0.055943 0.100275 0.185885
2025-08-17 0.005054 0.009227 0.016548 0.030444 0.056474 0.103732 0.197398
2025-08-24 0.004793 0.008949 0.016407 0.030897 0.058705 0.110441 0.215632
2025-08-31 0.004462 0.008509 0.015931 0.030673 0.059625 0.114758 0.229621
2025-09-07 0.004306 0.008386 0.016030 0.031549 0.062731 0.123498 0.253192
2025-09-14 0.003923 0.007790 0.015179 0.030488 0.061907 0.124460 0.260999
2025-09-21 0.003653 0.007394 0.014682 0.030084 0.062358 0.127982 0.274421
2025-09-28 0.003339 0.006881 0.013910 0.029050 0.061411 0.128550 0.281567
2025-10-05 0.003268 0.006862 0.014129 0.030095 0.064924 0.138702 0.310565
2025-10-12 0.003169 0.006776 0.014203 0.030834 0.067840 0.147824 0.338135
2025-10-19 0.003094 0.006733 0.014364 0.031772 0.071269 0.158346 0.369905